Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
