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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still